Combo map
Pulled at build time from output/combo-loop/<brand>/latest/MAP.md (workflow-combo-loop refresh.py). Read-only; nothing here writes to Meta.
dawn
Snapshot MAP.md, source /Users/ayden/.openclaw/workspace/output/combo-loop/dawn/latest/MAP.md.
Dawn combo map — 2026-10-06
Read-only Meta pull (0 GETs). 112 coded units, $286,465 lifetime spend. Breakeven ROAS 1.32. W = ≥$300 & ROAS ≥1.45; L = ≥$300 & ROAS <1.20. Codes: baseline-2026-10-05 82, sonnet-2026-10-06 30. Coded this run: 0 new concepts (Sonnet, codebook verbatim). Uncoded ≥$100: 0.
DIFF vs previous snapshot
Compared with snapshot 2026-10-05.
song: 17 → 17 units, $2,889 → $3,069, ROAS 1.54 → 1.53
- No cell with ≥$300 moved ROAS by ≥0.05.
video: 10 → 29 units, $314 → $5,569, ROAS 0.00 → 1.09
- Stronger: avatar=parent-teen: ROAS 0.00 → 0.99 ($270 → $3,787, n8→19, W2 L8); NEW cell avatar=parent-adhd: $993 ROAS 1.42 n4; avatar=parent-college: ROAS 0.00 → 1.27 ($44 → $436, n2→3, W0 L0); NEW cell avatar=adult-self: $354 ROAS 1.11 n3; NEW cell angle=usp: $751 ROAS 0.97 n1; NEW cell angle=mechanism: $3,172 ROAS 1.18 n11; NEW cell angle=offer: $365 ROAS 1.33 n1; NEW cell angle=reframe: $852 ROAS 1.25 n5; pov=mom-1st: ROAS 0.00 → 0.82 ($108 → $961, n1→3, W0 L3); pov=brand-voice: ROAS 0.00 → 1.15 ($206 → $4,608, n9→26, W3 L8)
- Recipe flip avatar: None → parent-adhd (low)
- Recipe flip angle: None → offer (low)
- Recipe flip pov: None → brand-voice (unprofitable)
- Recipe flip authority: None → study-science (low)
- Recipe flip stake_category: None → FUTURE/IDENTITY (low)
- Recipe flip stake_lands_on: None → kid (low)
- Recipe flip emotion: None → fear-panic (unprofitable)
- Recipe flip root_cause: None → adhd-brain (low)
- Recipe flip mechanism: None → generic-vibration (unprofitable)
- Recipe flip payoff: None → kid-independence (low)
- Recipe flip device: None → callout-direct (unprofitable)
- Recipe flip format: cartoon-vo → ugc-talking (unprofitable)
static: 59 → 66 units, $276,472 → $277,827, ROAS 1.79 → 1.79
- Stronger: payoff=safety: ROAS 0.94 → 0.99 ($585 → $312, n5→4, W0 L1)
- Weaker: angle=proof: ROAS 2.10 → 1.84 ($468 → $583, n1→2, W1 L1); angle=usp: ROAS 0.97 → 0.90 ($739 → $580, n6→6, W0 L2); authority=none: ROAS 2.07 → 1.98 ($6,948 → $7,415, n5→9, W4 L4); stake_category=none: ROAS 1.45 → 1.08 ($344 → $811, n2→6, W1 L3); stake_lands_on=none: ROAS 1.45 → 1.08 ($344 → $811, n2→6, W1 L3); emotion=rage-frustration: ROAS 1.74 → 1.69 ($2,888 → $3,003, n6→7, W4 L1); mechanism=generic-vibration: ROAS 1.85 → 1.64 ($2,212 → $2,541, n6→6, W2 L3); payoff=none: ROAS 1.45 → 1.27 ($344 → $461, n2→3, W1 L1)
New units (≥$100): ugc904-jess-control-neveralarm-loriscript [video] $751 ROAS 0.97 L; claymation goat [video] $622 ROAS 0.97 L; charswap-B-m6-driveway-45-8-20-2026 [video] $459 ROAS 1.10 L; alarm general [video] $419 ROAS 0.96 L; dbt0916-c-college [video] $392 ROAS 1.42 -; charswap-G-m1-kitchen-47-8-20-2026 scale-promo-8 [video] $365 ROAS 1.33 -; videopodcastagain45 [video] $248 ROAS 1.28 -; snooze button cartoon [video] $243 ROAS 0.55 L?; yarn 2 [video] $239 ROAS 1.92 W?; charswap-B-m3-laundry-23-8-20-2026 [video] $225 ROAS 1.49 -; automated claymation first [video] $221 ROAS 1.55 W?; 4-5times [video] $192 ROAS 0.79 L?; ugc722-01-omni-ugc-adhd-bts [video] $178 ROAS 1.73 W?; S02 | taking it out on the other child | Image 5 [static] $147 ROAS 0.31 L?; zachd og [video] $133 ROAS 1.78 - - song delivery: CPM $53.78 → $53.82; freq 1.159 → 1.154; link CTR 3.94% → 3.96%; CPA $46.59 → $46.5 - video delivery: CPM $72.99 → $43.51; freq 1.122 → 1.278; link CTR 1.95% → 2.8%; CPA $None → $52.53 - static delivery: CPM $22.28 → $22.32; freq 1.63 → 1.598; link CTR 0.0% → 1.49%; CPA $33.21 → $33.28
Frequency + decay per family (low-frequency theory)
| Family | Units | Spend | CPM | Freq (unit, $-wtd) | Impr per $ | Link CTR | CPA | CPA late÷early (median, n) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| song | 17 | $3,069 | $53.82 | 1.154 | 18.58 | 3.96% | $46.5 | 1.1 (n1) |
| video | 29 | $5,569 | $43.51 | 1.278 | 22.99 | 2.8% | $52.53 | 3.89 (n2) |
| static | 66 | $277,827 | $22.32 | 1.598 | 44.81 | 1.49% | $33.28 | 1.53 (n25) |
song curves (≥$300 units; weekly = life-week, $spend, purchases): - sa-ontime-04-relatab-animation-song-oneweek-a-v2copy: $1,294 ROAS 1.75 freq 1.11, 3 wks live, 2 wks ≥$100, peak $833/wk, CPA wk1-2 $42.1 → wk3+ $46.1 ($369) · [(1, 93, 3), (2, 833, 19), (3, 369, 8)] - sl0919-h2: $693 ROAS 1.62 freq 1.26, 4 wks live, 2 wks ≥$100, peak $471/wk, CPA wk1-2 $40.4 → wk3+ $46.5 ($47) · [(1, 176, 3), (2, 471, 13), (3, 45, 0), (4, 2, 1)]
video curves (≥$300 units; weekly = life-week, $spend, purchases): - ugc904-jess-control-neveralarm-loriscript: $751 ROAS 0.97 freq 1.54, 2 wks live, 2 wks ≥$100, peak $402/wk, CPA wk1-2 $47.0 → wk3+ $None ($0) · [(1, 402, 11), (2, 349, 5)] - claymation goat: $622 ROAS 0.97 freq 1.31, 5 wks live, 3 wks ≥$100, peak $250/wk, CPA wk1-2 $52.1 → wk3+ $85.6 ($257) · [(1, 115, 3), (2, 250, 4), (3, 239, 3), (4, 8, 0), (6, 10, 0)] - charswap-B-m6-driveway-45-8-20-2026: $459 ROAS 1.1 freq 1.2, 3 wks live, 1 wks ≥$100, peak $369/wk, CPA wk1-2 $56.5 → wk3+ $None ($7) · [(1, 83, 4), (2, 369, 4), (3, 7, 0)] - alarm general: $419 ROAS 0.96 freq 1.23, 2 wks live, 2 wks ≥$100, peak $240/wk, CPA wk1-2 $59.8 → wk3+ $None ($0) · [(1, 240, 6), (2, 179, 1)] - dbt0916-c-college: $392 ROAS 1.42 freq 1.14, 1 wks live, 1 wks ≥$100, peak $392/wk, CPA wk1-2 $49.0 → wk3+ $None ($0) · [(1, 392, 8)] - charswap-G-m1-kitchen-47-8-20-2026 scale-promo-8-28b: $365 ROAS 1.33 freq 1.38, 8 wks live, 1 wks ≥$100, peak $171/wk, CPA wk1-2 $20.0 → wk3+ $122.5 ($245) · [(1, 54, 3), (2, 66, 3), (3, 3, 0), (4, 171, 2), (5, 30, 0), (6, 19, 0), (7, 17, 0), (8, 5, 0)]
static curves (≥$300 units; weekly = life-week, $spend, purchases): - neveralarm-pdp: $87,865 ROAS 1.88 freq 1.66, 29 wks live, 22 wks ≥$100, peak $14265/wk, CPA wk1-2 $23.4 → wk3+ $31.9 ($79881) · [(1, 3427, 143), (2, 4555, 198), (3, 2393, 94), (4, 5469, 246), (5, 14265, 532), (6, 8829, 281), (7, 6734, 171), (8, 2459, 39)] - adhd convenience slop 9 - Copy: $73,612 ROAS 1.86 freq 1.8, 23 wks live, 23 wks ≥$100, peak $7959/wk, CPA wk1-2 $36.3 → wk3+ $33.0 ($70853) · [(1, 1197, 33), (2, 1563, 43), (3, 382, 11), (4, 2024, 54), (5, 3537, 89), (6, 1853, 47), (7, 2123, 66), (8, 2492, 72)] - 3-partner-alarm - Copy: $22,467 ROAS 1.7 freq 1.23, 22 wks live, 9 wks ≥$100, peak $8309/wk, CPA wk1-2 $27.5 → wk3+ $38.9 ($19165) · [(1, 26, 0), (2, 3273, 120), (3, 5519, 185), (4, 8309, 187), (5, 1430, 20), (6, 109, 0), (7, 462, 12), (8, 974, 40)] - img-c1-dressed-asleep: $17,209 ROAS 1.59 freq 1.29, 13 wks live, 7 wks ≥$100, peak $4593/wk, CPA wk1-2 $26.9 → wk3+ $41.1 ($16045) · [(1, 96, 2), (2, 630, 25), (3, 2866, 92), (4, 4593, 140), (5, 4513, 99), (6, 3283, 43), (7, 515, 13), (8, 184, 3)] - testimonial_v2 - Copy: $12,734 ROAS 1.86 freq 1.68, 16 wks live, 13 wks ≥$100, peak $3163/wk, CPA wk1-2 $24.6 → wk3+ $31.4 ($11871) · [(1, 432, 15), (2, 430, 20), (3, 448, 15), (4, 276, 20), (5, 1664, 57), (6, 3163, 126), (7, 1590, 57), (8, 572, 16)] - s3-never-late → adhd listicle: $8,766 ROAS 1.97 freq 2.22, 17 wks live, 10 wks ≥$100, peak $1682/wk, CPA wk1-2 $21.4 → wk3+ $36.3 ($6432) · [(1, 851, 42), (2, 1481, 67), (3, 1682, 42), (4, 1243, 21), (5, 215, 10), (6, 229, 13), (7, 362, 15), (8, 1563, 41)]
Recipes (winning value per dimension, per family)
song — 17 units, $3,069, ROAS 1.53 (value floor $300)
| Dimension | Winner | Spend | ROAS | n | W/L | Confidence | Runner-up | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| avatar | parent-teen | $2,081 | 1.66 | 10 | 2/2 | med | parent-college 1.27 | |
| angle | relatability | $1,461 | 1.64 | 3 | 1/1 | low | stakes 1.53 | |
| pov | mom-1st | $2,798 | 1.62 | 14 | 3/2 | med | ||
| authority | study-science | $1,485 | 1.69 | 4 | 1/1 | low | borrowed-person 1.47 | |
| stake_category | FAMILY/RELATIONSHIP | $1,606 | 1.62 | 8 | 1/1 | low | FUTURE/IDENTITY 1.52 | |
| stake_lands_on | mom | $1,989 | 1.69 | 8 | 2/2 | low | kid 1.27 | |
| emotion | resentment | $323 | 2.25 | 3 | 1/0 | low | vindication 1.63 | |
| root_cause | deep-sleep-blocks-sound | $3,016 | 1.56 | 15 | 3/3 | med | ||
| mechanism | ramp+silent | $1,139 | 1.75 | 10 | 2/0 | low | silent-to-others 1.48 | |
| payoff | vindication | $1,820 | 1.78 | 8 | 2/1 | low | kid-independence 1.33 | |
| device | experiment | $1,528 | 1.64 | 7 | 1/1 | low | testimonial 1.27 | |
| format | song-longform-animation | $2,887 | 1.58 | 16 | 3/2 | med |
Top pairs: stake_lands_on=mom + mechanism=ramp+silent 2.41 ($346 n4); avatar=parent-teen + mechanism=ramp+silent 2.32 ($359 n5); mechanism=ramp+silent + payoff=vindication 2.32 ($359 n5); avatar=parent-teen + emotion=resentment 2.25 ($323 n3); pov=mom-1st + emotion=resentment 2.25 ($323 n3); authority=borrowed-person + stake_lands_on=mom 2.25 ($323 n3) Weakest pairs: avatar=parent-college + authority=borrowed-person 1.27 ($988 n7); avatar=parent-college + stake_lands_on=kid 1.27 ($988 n7); avatar=parent-college + device=testimonial 1.27 ($988 n7); authority=borrowed-person + stake_lands_on=kid 1.27 ($988 n7) Paying parents: sa-ontime-04-relatab-animation-song-oneweek-a $1,294 ROAS 1.75 CPA $43.12; sl0919-h2 $693 ROAS 1.62 CPA $40.77; sa-ontime-10-fear-animation-song-exhibita-a $293 ROAS 2.48 CPA $32.54
video — 29 units, $5,569, ROAS 1.09 (value floor $300)
| Dimension | Winner | Spend | ROAS | n | W/L | Confidence | Runner-up | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| avatar | parent-adhd | $993 | 1.42 | 4 | 1/1 | low | parent-college 1.27 | adult-self 1.11, parent-teen 0.99 |
| angle | offer | $365 | 1.33 | 1 | 0/0 | low | reframe 1.25 | mechanism 1.18, usp 0.97 |
| pov | brand-voice | $4,608 | 1.15 | 26 | 3/8 | unprofitable | mom-1st 0.82 | brand-voice 1.15, mom-1st 0.82 |
| authority | study-science | $929 | 1.35 | 7 | 1/1 | low | social-proof 1.11 | social-proof 1.11, guarantee-only 1.01, none 0.99 |
| stake_category | FUTURE/IDENTITY | $392 | 1.42 | 1 | 0/0 | low | SCHOOL 1.38 | FAMILY/RELATIONSHIP 1.19, none 1.05, VIOLENCE/CONFLICT 0.94 |
| stake_lands_on | kid | $1,001 | 1.35 | 8 | 1/0 | low | none 1.11 | none 1.11, family 1.10, mom 0.16 |
| emotion | fear-panic | $426 | 1.30 | 4 | 0/0 | unprofitable | exhaustion 1.08 | exhaustion 1.08, relief-hope 1.02 |
| root_cause | adhd-brain | $311 | 1.75 | 2 | 1/0 | low | brain-tunes-out-sound 1.25 | deep-sleep-blocks-sound 1.09, none 0.90 |
| mechanism | generic-vibration | $671 | 1.18 | 6 | 1/0 | unprofitable | ramp-until-off 1.14 | generic-vibration 1.18, ramp-until-off 1.14, ramp+silent 1.13 |
| payoff | kid-independence | $1,827 | 1.38 | 9 | 2/2 | low | school-outcome 1.33 | none 1.01, mom-freedom 1.00, calm-mornings 0.81 |
| device | callout-direct | $2,927 | 1.31 | 15 | 3/5 | unprofitable | testimonial 0.97 | testimonial 0.97, none 0.93 |
| format | ugc-talking | $2,850 | 1.10 | 8 | 0/5 | unprofitable | cartoon-vo 1.09 | ugc-talking 1.10, cartoon-vo 1.09 |
Top pairs: angle=reframe + root_cause=adhd-brain 1.75 ($311 n2); pov=brand-voice + root_cause=adhd-brain 1.75 ($311 n2); authority=study-science + root_cause=adhd-brain 1.75 ($311 n2); root_cause=adhd-brain + device=callout-direct 1.75 ($311 n2); authority=social-proof + stake_category=FAMILY/RELATIONSHIP 1.75 ($460 n2); authority=social-proof + payoff=kid-independence 1.75 ($460 n2) Weakest pairs: avatar=parent-teen + stake_lands_on=mom 0.16 ($332 n5); avatar=parent-teen + payoff=calm-mornings 0.81 ($1,604 n8); pov=brand-voice + payoff=calm-mornings 0.81 ($1,604 n8); avatar=parent-teen + pov=mom-1st 0.82 ($961 n3) Paying parents: yarn 2 $239 ROAS 1.92 CPA $26.58; automated claymation first $221 ROAS 1.55 CPA $44.11; ugc722-01-omni-ugc-adhd-bts $178 ROAS 1.73 CPA $44.44
static — 66 units, $277,827, ROAS 1.79 (value floor $8,335)
| Dimension | Winner | Spend | ROAS | n | W/L | Confidence | Runner-up | Avoid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| avatar | parent-teen | $130,253 | 1.84 | 31 | 16/8 | high | parent-adhd 1.79 | |
| angle | reframe | $12,888 | 2.02 | 6 | 3/0 | high | liberation 1.88 | |
| pov | brand-voice | $201,960 | 1.87 | 25 | 13/6 | high | grown-kid-1st 1.69 | |
| authority | guarantee-only | $109,051 | 1.84 | 15 | 6/5 | high | social-proof 1.83 | |
| stake_category | JOB/MONEY | $10,088 | 1.92 | 5 | 3/0 | high | PARENT-SELF 1.87 | |
| stake_lands_on | mom | $178,557 | 1.86 | 22 | 14/7 | high | family 1.67 | |
| emotion | vindication | $8,867 | 1.96 | 2 | 1/0 | low | exhaustion 1.87 | |
| root_cause | deep-sleep-blocks-sound | $115,695 | 1.86 | 18 | 12/3 | high | brain-tunes-out-sound 1.75 | |
| mechanism | silent-to-others | $9,829 | 1.96 | 5 | 2/3 | med | touch-gets-through 1.81 | |
| payoff | vindication | $8,766 | 1.97 | 1 | 1/0 | low | kid-independence 1.83 | |
| device | day-in-life | $9,387 | 1.93 | 4 | 2/1 | med | callout-direct 1.86 | |
| format | image-shortcopy | $9,815 | 1.96 | 5 | 2/2 | med | image-native-longcopy 1.78 |
Top pairs: emotion=relief-hope + root_cause=deep-sleep-blocks-sound 2.23 ($4,674 n3); stake_category=PARENT-SELF + emotion=relief-hope 2.20 ($4,789 n4); stake_lands_on=mom + emotion=relief-hope 2.20 ($4,789 n4); angle=reframe + payoff=kid-independence 2.19 ($3,651 n3); angle=reframe + pov=brand-voice 2.04 ($12,316 n3); avatar=parent-teen + mechanism=silent-to-others 1.99 ($9,612 n3) Weakest pairs: avatar=parent-teen + device=testimonial 1.21 ($3,579 n6); stake_category=FUTURE/IDENTITY + device=testimonial 1.22 ($4,619 n7); mechanism=touch-gets-through + device=testimonial 1.25 ($5,505 n7); angle=stakes + device=testimonial 1.26 ($8,030 n9) Paying parents: neveralarm-pdp $87,865 ROAS 1.88 CPA $30.85; adhd convenience slop 9 - Copy $73,612 ROAS 1.86 CPA $33.13; 3-partner-alarm - Copy $22,467 ROAS 1.70 CPA $36.65; img-c1-dressed-asleep $17,209 ROAS 1.59 CPA $39.93; testimonial_v2 - Copy $12,734 ROAS 1.86 CPA $30.83
Files: recipes.json (plan.py input), units.json, agg.json, family.json, ads.json, weekly.json.
curvelle
No snapshot yet at /Users/ayden/.openclaw/workspace/output/combo-loop/curvelle/latest/MAP.md. codebook built 2026-10-06 (codebook_curvelle.md); still needs breakeven ROAS from media-buyer before refresh will code